Refers to how events surge, then stabilize. Initial popularity peaks, then declines before reaching a stable state.
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Refers to how events surge, then stabilize. Initial popularity peaks, then declines before reaching a stable state.
I experienced this Memo a few years ago. We opened a concept restaurant, and most experienced people told me that we would attract a lot of customers in the beginning due to the Novelty Effect, but that we shouldn’t get used to that volume of people because it would eventually settle down. That’s exactly what happened. Huge, huge traffic in the beginning, then it plummeted before stabilizing with the actual customers, who are still with us 3 years later.
A similar concept would be the Hype Cycle (a graphical representation of the life cycle stages that emerging technologies go through, from initial innovation trigger to peak expectations, followed by disillusionment, and ultimately reaching a stable, productive state as understanding and application mature.)